Richard S. Solis
May 31, 2010

The Arroyo Court and Beyond

Outgoing President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (PGMA) seems to tighten her hold to power as June 30, 2010 (turn-over date to her successor) approaches. Her last minute appointment of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court after the overwhelming mandate given by the Filipino voters to Senator Noynoy Aquino as the new President of the country, points to her favor in case there will be electoral disputes and delayed proclamation of the new President and Vice-President. The Philippine Constitution says that the Supreme Court can function as Presidential Electoral Tribunal when the abovementioned situation does occur. PGMA is making sure that Supreme Court is and will be her Court because she has made sure that the two most senior Associate Justices, who are well-known critics of her administration and who did not make themselves available during the selection process for the new Chief Justice after the retirement of Chief Justice Reynato Puno last May 17, 2010 because they strongly believe together with almost sixty percent (60%) of the people of the Philippines that it is morally and common sensically correct that the new elected President has the right to appoint the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. The two most senior Associate Justices including the newly retired Chief Justice have been left holding an empty bag. It is very difficult to understand why the newly retired Chief Justice Reynato Puno has to give in to the unconstitutional and unethical move of PGMA more so that he (retired Chief Justice) has started the formation of the Moral Force Recovery in the country. But when he himself was confronted with a moral or even constitutional question of whether to give in or stand against the immoral action of PGMA, he became legally and morally impotent. In fact, he wanted to make the newly elected President recognize the Arroyo appointed Chief Justice. He (Puno) has delivered the Supreme Court to the Arroyo camp in a silver platter.

After the swearing in of Renato Corona as Chief Justice last May 17, 2010, it is as if signaled a new phase of conflict between the new Arroyo Chief Justice and the newly elected President while safely distancing GMA from the controversy she has created. And in a very unprecedented manner in the history of the Philippine Supreme Court, the new Chief Justice has to appear to media to explain many things which he wants to tell to the people that he is not an Arroyo’s lackey and he and the Supreme Court can be a good partner of the President and the Executive and not its enemy. The media offensive had lasted for three days because the more the former Arroyo spokesperson and chief of staff and the newly appointed Chief Justice tried to explain about his being independent of the outgoing President, the more people are convinced to believe the opposite.

National Canvassing to Proclaim or For Protests?

Last week, the Senate and the House of Representatives have met to start their Constitutional function as National Board of Canvassers but they have been bogged down because of several glitches on the conduct of the first automatic elections. Suddenly, the candidates, many of them belonging to the ruling Party of Arroyo camp and almost all of them have lost in the last elections, have surfaced and claimed that they were cheated by their opponents. Many have brought with them masked and unmasked witnesses to prove their allegations of being cheated but all of them did not report to proper authorities of the so-called attempts by these people to cheat for them with huge amounts of money as payment. And worst, they (belonging to the ruling Party) could have made them get arrested because such offer to cheat is a serious crime against the democratic process of the country or any civilized country for that matter. That is why, it is understandable and best for the country that these people have not won otherwise they will victimized once again the people of their transactional politics placing always paramount importance for their own interests above the peoples’.

The canvassing has been further bogged down because the lawmakers who comprised the National Board of Canvassers (NBC) have requested the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) and the automatic election contractor (SMARTMATIC) to educate them how the Precinct Count Optical Scanning (PCOS) machines work out (a pre-elections activity). But what is worst is that the leadership body of the NBC (Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives) has given attention to this request which is beyond the NBC works. The complains about cheatings should be addressed to the proper venue not to the NBC. And to make the people believe that the NBC has been doing their job while they are doing this pre-election testing on automatic elections, they started to canvass those votes manually done especially from the Overseas Absentee Voters (OAV) but soon they will begin to be confronted by the reality of canvassing the votes done in the automated manner.

Meanwhile, the level of people’s apprehension has become very highly agitated and can be transformed into street actions anytime whether the NBC can finish this Constitutional function before June 30, 2010, which is a question in progress or it can be a political disaster.

GOVERNING BEYOND JUNE 30, 2010

Meanwhile, the GMA camp has continued to make midnight appointments which when challenged, they (GMA) will have the ready answer of claiming that the appointments were made in March 9, 2010 for March 10, 2010 is the day which starts the 2-month period where the Constitution bans the outgoing President to make any appointment before the elections of May 10, 2010. And those who have been re-appointed or whose terms have been extended are with fixed term – which means that the Constitution defines the number of years of their office. A case in point here is the re-appointment of the Chair of Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) and its four Commissioners for another year. PAGCOR is the third highest source of revenues of the government after Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and Bureau of Customs and the term of its Chair and its four Commissioners is renewed yearly. It will be constitutionally or legally difficult for the new Administration to remove them from office unless it starts the complicated impeachment process.

Another midnight move of the Arroyo camp is to sell the precious jewelries of the former First Lady Imelda Marcos worth several millions of dollars. The Presidential Commission on Good Government (PCGG) tasked to recover the ill-gotten wealth of the Marcoses and is the custodian of the recovered jewelries of the Marcoses, has been in the process of getting an updated appraisal of the ill-gotten jewelries when they were exposed to the public. The GMA camp was so embarrassed of this exposé that it has ordered the PCGG to stop the selling of the Marcos’ jewelries.

And as if not to be outdone, Arroyo’s favorite Defense Secretary and the concurrent National Security Adviser has ordered the purchase of arms and ammunitions and equipment for the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). The 300Billions of pesos worth of these hardwares are hastenly ordered (given that Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales has only few months in office) that the processes could have been shortcut and just like in the past, the quality of the purchase will be affected and the lives and limbs of the rank and file of the AFP will be at stake and the taxes of the people will be wasted. At present, Memorandum of Agreement has been signed by the Philippines and five (5) countries about the purchase.

The international community has been delivering a clear message to the Arroyo camp that it is closely following the whole processes of the Philippine politics from the automatic elections, the clear deliberate delay in the canvassing and the danger of continuous midnight political appointments which have been affecting the political and economic stability of the country and the international interests therein.

Almost all the ambassadors or representatives from the major countries with diplomatic relationships with the Philippines have intentionally forgotten diplomatic protocols and have paid visits to Senator Noynoy Aquino in his family residence.

The diplomatic visits have been meant to tell the Arroyo camp that as far as their (International community) countries are concerned, they know already who have won in the May 2010 elections and are ready to recognize the new government with or without the Congress through its National Board of Canvassers finish their canvassing and declare winners for the Presidency and Vice-Presidency.

Even in the sequence of the visits is not accidental but based on their country’s economic and political interests in the country. The visits were triggered by the Ambassador of China, Spain and the United States of America not necessarily by order of their interest and the country’s importance given to them.

The Arroyo camp and its allies in Congress, the Judiciary as well as in the Executive have been trying to cover up their tracks through Constitutional protections or sheer political blackmailing while buying their time to hold on to power up to the last minute of June 30, 2010 and beyond.


A PEACE OFFERING OR A TROJAN HORSE

They (Arroyo camp) have initiated moves to deliver message to the incoming President and his administration that they can give a smooth transition if they will be no prosecution of GMA and her family. For instance, Mrs. Arroyo and her husband (Mike Arroyo) have been cleared (for several times already) by the Ombudsman from corruption charges regarding the National Broadband Network (NBN) while giving go signal for filing a case against her former allies namely: Secretary Romulo Neri – the former National Economic Development Administration (NEDA) and currently the President of Social Security System (SSS) and former Commission on Election (COMELEC) Chairperson Benjamin Abalos, Sr.

This is a clear answer of the GMA camp to the campaign promise of Senator Noynoy Aquino of fighting through prosecuting corrupt government officials that GMA and her allies have laid down political blockages and landmines through the re-appointment of the Ombudsman, Merceditas Guttierez (closely identified with Mike Arroyo) and the recent controversial appointment of Chief Justice Reynato Corona in the Supreme Court, which will be the final Arbiter of cases filed against Mrs. Arroyo and her family after June 30, 2010.

Another move by the Arroyo camp which should be understood in the same framework is the granting of temporary release order of Brigadier General Danilo Lim, the former commander of the elite Scout Rangers of the Army and who ran as senator in the May 2010 elections under the Liberal Party under Senator Noynoy Aquino. General Lim (a West Point Academy graduate) joined other democratic forces in making a demand for GMA’s resignation as President after the “Hello Garci” scandal but who placed number 15 (out of 12 senators) in the recent senatorial race in May 2010. The act of temporary release (he posted bail of P200,000.00) of General Lim is a peace offering of GMA and the AFP Chief of Staff Delfin Bangit to Senator Noynoy Aquino in order to retain the latter in his position and to maintain GMA’s favored general as head of AFP. This is best understood in the context where President apparent Noynoy Aquino made mention of possibly retaining Director General Jesus Verzosa, the current head of the Philippine National Police (PNP) until he retires in December 2010. And there is a talk coming from the camp of Senator Noynoy Aquino that General Bangit will be replaced by an officer not identified with the Arroyo camp.

Meanwhile, the other message from what has been happening to the delayed results of the National Canvassing in Congress is that, the new automated form of a democratic exercise of freely choosing the rightful leaders of the country can be put to nothing if the existing system (political and economic) will be unchanged. Foremost of these will be the existing warlords and the transactional methods of politics in all levels in the political structures of the government.. Nothing will happen in any democratic exercise if corruption in all its forms cannot be greatly minimized if not annihilated. And nothing can be achieved even with the new popular President in place if nothing can be done to address the ever intensifying poverty situation of more than fifty (50%) percent of the country’s population. This is especially so that the Arroyo government is leaving behind almost 300billions of budget deficit out from P1.4Trillion 2010 National Budget, where P280Billion is the estimated amount that will be lost to corruption this year.

And one month before the Arroyo administration is leaving her office, its financial experts have already given their advice to the next Administration that a new round of taxes should be collected in order to weather the economic and financial difficulties ahead. They (Arroyo camp) are proposing to increase the new expanded Value-Added Tax from 12.5% to 15%. A surest move if followed by the new Administration of becoming unpopular in starting its governance. And this move is suggested by the Arroyo camp after boasting that in the second quarter, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased to 7.3%. Everybody knows that such increase in the GDP is mainly caused by the heavy spending during the recent synchronized local and national elections and the increased of the Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) remittances for their families because of the graduation and the enrolment needs during the abovementioned period. It has nothing to do with the improvement of the quality of lives of the peoples in the country nor a reflection of an ability of the outgoing Administration of managing the country’s economy well.


TO GOVERN MEANS TO BUILD

Meanwhile, the incoming government of Senator and President=elect Noynoy Aquino has started to form his government. This early, it has been known that aside from his close friend and legal adviser Paquito Ochoa, the old names and recycled personalities have cropped up as possible Cabinet members of the Aquino Administration like Dinky Soliman, Secretary of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) under the Arroyo Administration and is being asked to be in the same position under the Aquino Administration and Ging Deles, a Secretary of the Office of the Presidential Adviser of the Peace Process (OPAPP) under the Arroyo Administration but like Dinky had resigned during the “Hello Garci” scandal and is being asked to the same position by the Aquino Administration. But the people just hope that these recycled personalities will have genuine, vibrant and people-centered programs this time around.

During this period, it can already be felt the possible rivalries between the different groups which helped Senator Noynoy Aquino in the campaign in terms of Cabinet positionings which can affect the functioning of the new government in addressing and implementing programs which the Aquino government has promised during the elections. The danger for these groups of going after political positions for themselves rather than formulating people-centered program of government will always be present in the new government. Such dynamics, the new government can less afford while confronting the various and complicated scenario and problems erected and established by the outgoing Administration.

The consolidation of gains for effective formulation and implementation of laws supportive of the Executive programs should be given utmost priority at this period.

The dynamics and issues regarding the elections and selections of the leadership of both the Senate and the House of Representatives should be resolved and unity and consolidation of the Liberal Party (LP) and its broad Party Coalition should be developed.

The power and influence of the Executive (President) over the purse or the allocation of every lawmaker (in both houses) have been made by the Arroyo camp difficult to the next administration by inserting Section 67 in the 2010 General Appropriations Act where each lawmaker can automatically access their so-called Projects Countrywide Development Fund (PDAP) or the “pork barrel” without the Executive intervention. Aside from the phrase “subject to availability of funds” it seems that the incoming Administration will not have the same privileged positions as the outgoing administration to decide to give or not to give the PDAF, hence, total control of lawmakers who want to avail their PDAF. This proactive move of the Arroyo camp is to neutralize the use of pork barrel in choosing the next Speaker or the Senate President and remove the equity of the incumbent administration.

And even if the Aquino administration will get the Speakership of the House and the Senate Presidency, the numbers of the lawmakers like 30% can easily be maintained by Representative Gloria M. Arroyo. This number is enough to pass the impeachment process from the Lower House to the Senate for the Impeachment of President Noynoy Aquino.

This is the ultimate safety valve for the Arroyo camp to keep hostage the Aquino Administration every time it initiates the prosecution of Representative Gloria Arroyo and her family.

This is a sure assurance for difficult thing ahead for the new Aquino Administration.

Senator Noynoy Aquino has won the Presidency with a very wide margin of votes from its nearest rival mainly through people power which was clearly manifested last May 10, 2010, it will only be through people power that he and his government can survive from all the seemingly insurmountable and complicated conflicts and problems left behind by the “scorned earth” policy of the most unpopular President that the country ever had.

Some Notes on Post Election Philippines Situation
Richard S. Solis
May 13, 2010



As Political Dusks are Settling, New Realities are Emerging

It has been two days after the May 10, 2010 Philippine elections and as the Political dusks seem to settle down, the nation faces a situation of having a new President but continue to be governed by the Arroyo Regime even beyond the June 30, 2010 turning over of power.

A day after the elections the nation was so stunned by the swiftness the votes have been delivered and counted by the Precinct Counting Optimal Scan (PCOS) machine in the designated canvassing centers that nobody has paid attention to the other phases or aspects of the election process where the actual cheating and fraud activities took place.

It was also a day after the elections that Arroyo appointed her favorite Associate Justice to become the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court before she and her sons and relatives were proclaimed winners in the Congressional districts. It is the only time in the Philippine Judiciary history that a situation of having a Chief Justice in waiting has occurred.

And it was a day after the elections too when a new word was added to the Philippine electoral vocabulary – concede. Nacionalista Party Presidential standard bearer Senator Manuel Villar who is running a poor third in the counting of votes for the President immediately called a Press Conference and conceded or accepted the will of the people. This act of early conceding not only made others to follow like Administration bet LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD and former Defense Chief Gilbert Teodoro who placed fourth in the Presidential race, Bro. Eddie Villanueva, Richard Gordon, Jamby Madrigal and JC de los Reyes also but also gave credibility to the COMELEC and the automated elections.

It should be recalled that in the Philippine Poliics there are only two types of politicians during and after elections – the winners and those who are cheated. Nobody seem to understand the word concede or defeat. That is why a new political terrain is being drawn by Nationalista party Presidential standard bearer when he immediately conceded. Or is it a political maneuver to put pressure to former President Joseph Estrada who surprisingly overtook him in the second place to also concede but portraying himself (Villar) as a great state man and a good preparation for the 2016 elections?

Today only the Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) and former President Joseph Estrada and environmentalist presidential candidate Nicanor Perlas (8th rank) are not conceding because of his discovery of fraud and cheating. JC de los Reyes (ranked 9) later got back his concession in unison with Nicanor Perlas’ complaints.

And today, facts are beginning to reveal that there are as many as 5 million voters who were disenfranchised (both self and technical) because they could not find their names on their precincts, others already voted for them or they could not stand the long queues under the burning heat of the sun.

Statistically, the number (5 million) can make the difference especially in the tight Vice-Presidential race between Mayor Jejomar Binay and Senator Mar Roxas and the senatorial race form the numbers 10, 11 and 12 places.

While there is a remarkable swiftness in the counting and producing results in the national levels, there is a remarkable slowness in the counting and having results in the local levels as well as in the case of the Vice-Presidential level.

And today protests are beginning to be manifested by different groups about the cleanliness of the latest automated elections. June 30, 2010 is still more than six weeks away and anything can still happen not excluding no proclamation scenario or any of its variations.


Protest Against Whom? Protest Against What?

Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III has indeed got the highest number of votes from the Filipino People – higher than what President Joseph Estrada got in 1998 – and highest in Philippine Electoral history. On the almost 90% of the total votes, Senator Noynoy got 13.6 million votes while the former President Estrada got 8.4 millions and it is expected that the former can get as much as more than 5 million more votes than his closest rival (Estrada) which cannot be affected anymore by the 10% remaining votes to be canvassed and the disenfranchised votes that we made mention earlier.

So if there will be protest with regards to the automated elections it will not be on the results of the level of the Presidential race but rather in the other levels e.g. Vice-presidential and Senatorial as well as local levels . Or it can be about the inclusion of a nuisance candidate {Vitaliano Acosta of the Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (KBL)} presidential candidate who, because his name was placed above Aquino’s name in the ballots, got even higher votes than the combined votes of the last three presidential bets (Madrigal, Perlas and de lo Reyes). How can one explain such phenomenon that Acosta did not have a single exposure in any form of media compared to the three and yet he got this phenomenal number of votes (more than 140,000). Or was it part of getting several thousands of votes intended for Noynoy Aquino which can be destructive to Noynoy especially if the race is close with his rivals but since Acosta comes first before Aquino many made a mistake of shading Acosta and realize later that it was not Aquino that they have shaded (we verified several cases of such mistakes).

If there are protests these will be on vote manipulation before voters came to the precincts and feed their “pre-shaded” ballots to the PCOS machines. In short followers of the traditional politicians and their private armies pre-filled up the ballots of the voters before letting others (acting as the voter in the name of the ballots) feed the ballots to the machines. Not a few of such cases came with surprises in their lives when they realize that others pre-shaded and voted for them. Sometimes it’s a whole municipality which simply means that the Board of Election inspectors (BEIs) have been threatened or had connived (accepted payments) with the candidates to do such fraud. These people did the voting (shading) for their own candidates and let others go to the precincts where the BEIs did not anymore bother to check whether the voters were really the ones as their names say they were.

The stress of appreciation would be on the swiftness on delivery and counting the votes than the pre-PCOS machine activities would not be noticed. And what had happened to the security ink of the ballots? Since the built in system of the security check was removed from the PCOS machines, one could not hear about the separate machines which were procured separately to check the ultra-violet marking of the ballots to differentiate them from the fake or the manufactured ballots. Nowhere could we see this ultra violet lamps in the display on the televisions and in the actual voting. In short, the machines could not identify genuine ballots from the fake ballots being fed to them. These cases should be objectively identified so that real winners can be segregated from the real losers. Otherwise, there will be delays in the proclamation in June 30, 2010.

Why are Presidential candidates like Erap Estrada, Madrigal, Perlas and de los Reyes would want to make their protes? It cannot be addressed to the unstoppable victory of Senator Noynoy Aquino as the next President of the country. They want to address their protest to the process of the first automated elections of the country. The delay in the proclamation can be the collateral effect of such protest but definitely it can provide excellent conditions for the real objective of the Arroyo regime to delay the proclamation of the newly elected officials forever.


OPLAN RAFAEL in its Purest Form

As events have unfolded now it is as if in the OPLAN RAFAEL - that is the Arroyo regime can continue to hold on to power up to June 30, 2010 and even beyond.

The appointment of the new Chief Justice in the person of her favorite Justice Renato Corona will be best understood in such context. The obvious and overwhelming confidence and thrust of the peoples thru their votes to Noynoy Aquino as the next President did not make Arroyo to reconsider her decision to appoint the new Chief Justice. And further considering that she has only 36 days left in her office while Noynoy (as the new President) has 44 days after June 30, 2010 which is enough time to carefully select and appoint the new Chief Justice during his term as President. Others would say that this is the first sign of Arroyo’s declaration of war to Aquino. Noynoy Aquino on the other hand has vowed that he will not recognize the Arroyo appointed Chief Justice because of constitutional considerations. Who will interpret or will be the last arbiter whether one violates or not the country’s constitution? It is the Supreme Court and the retiring of the current Chief Justice Renato Puno this coming May 17, 2010 – the Supreme Court is but an Arroyo court and therefore it is very unlikely that the court will decide against itself. In case of delayed proclamation of winners of the May 10, 2010 elections, the Supreme Court with the Arroyo’s new Chief Justice will be the Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET) and it will act whether to proclaim that Presidential and Vice-Presidential winners. Can the Supreme Court acting as PET therefore, proclaimed a President who is not recognizing the Chief Justice of the Court? Surely there will be a constitutional crisis and what will be the role of the GMA camp during this crisis. Indeed very big role especially if this crisis happens on or before June 30, 2010.

Further, Senator Noynoy Aquino – the virtually elected President will not take his oath before the Arroyo Chief Justice – what will happen? Historical precedent would say it is like the past Marcos scenario – where the Marcos Chief Justice Ramon C. Aquino was not the one whom people powered President Corazon Aquino did not recognize and took her oath instead before the then Associate Justice Claudio Teehankee.

Currently, the Arroyo camp has stood strong that it will not back off from its appointment Chief Justice Corona but nothing can be heard from the latter whether he is or he is not accepting the appointment as Chief Justice. In fact on Monday he will be taking his oath as the new Chief Justice – that is if nothing happens in Friday – when the current Chief Justice Puno will give his valedictory address as an outgoing Chief Justice and in which at least he can address the issue.

Meanwhile, as it is clearly shown now, the delay in the canvassing and the counting in the local levels can be a big factor in delaying the proclamation of the winners especially the Vice-Presidential and the Senatorial levels. And it can even affect the proclamation of Senator Noynoy Aquino notwithstanding the historical and highest votes a President can get. Local protests are being launched now questioning the manner and the cleanliness of the so-called synchronized local and national elections. And not so few of these protests are coming from the allies of the Arroyo camp.

With regards to the national canvassing of the votes for the Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates which the Congress – the Senate and the House of the Representatives in a joint session – is mandated by the constitution to act as the National Canvassers will surely be delayed as express by the current speaker of the house Prospero Nograles (who was heavily defeated in his mayorial bid in Davao City) that the House of Representatives cannot get a quorum in the next few weeks because the members of the House (80% belongs to the Arroyo camp) are having their vacations after a very hectic and tiresome electoral campaigns.

And this early the Arroyo camp has been threatening Senator Noynoy Aquino of the possibility of impeachment if he (as President) will not follow the Constitution – that is the Constitution as interpreted by the Arroyo Supreme Court.




Paving the Transition to What?

While the Arroyo camp is about to leave Malacanang Palace and boasting of preparing to the transition of a new administration, anyone can not expect that this can be a smooth transition because of the opening salvos that the Arroyo camp have been firing towards Senator Noynoy Aquino.

While the President-elect Senator Aquino has been very consistent that he will put closures on the political as well as the economic sins committed by the Arroyo administration against the people, it is clear that the Arroyo camp will not give him a chance to even get closer to such move. Political blockages have been put up by the Arroyo’s camp with the sure help from the Arroyo Supreme Court and always ready to lend their hands from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP) to make the Aquino Presidency not so easy.

If Senator Noynoy Aquino can get over with his proclamation as President on June 30, 2010, then he will have big and difficult hurdles to overcome with ahead.

Both houses in Congress will not be friendly to him. In the Lower House the Arroyo camp has the initial number of 80 members who just won in the Lower House of Congress out of 160 they had fielded last May 10, 2010. One can expect of almost 50% of the Party List out of 57 members who had won, that is more than 20 additional members who will be allies of the Arroyo camp. So it is more than 100 members in the Lower House out of 267 total members as their initial political base. That means the Arroyo camp has to convince around 30 members more of the House to their side in addition to what they have to reach a simple majority and elect Representative Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as Speaker.

On the side of the Liberal Party (LP) - Senator Aquino’s Party – they have 40 members who just won out of 122 members they have fielded last elections. They can count more from the other parties like the National Peoples’ Coalition (NPC), The Nacionalista Party (NP) and even from the Arroyo’s camp. They plan to form a CORE Coalition (Conscience and Reform Coalition). They (LP) have the advantage of the power and the influence of the Office of the President to attract and convince members from the other political parties because of the control of the Office of the President through the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) on the release or withholding of the Country Development Fund (CDF) or otherwise known as the pork barrel. Based on how the members of the House of Representatives react to this “pork”, the LP will not have difficulty getting their rank increase and get the majority. Another attraction of the LP as the Party of the President is, its capacity to share the chairpersonships of the different committees in the house. And the skills of its (LP-CORE Coalition) potential candidate for the speakership – Representative Sonny Belmonte – a survivor politician from almost all administrations starting from Marcos dictatorship up to the Arroyo administration surely he can easily convince other members of the other parties to join and form the CORE Coalition which in return will elect her as Speaker of the Lower House of the 15th Congress.

With regards to the Senate as to the present and based on those members of the Senate whose term will end on 2013 and those who had just won in the last elections, the LP will likely become the minority party in the Upper House. Over-all the LP will have 8 members in the Senate against 15 by the Nacionalista Party and its allies. So most likely the Senate of the 15th Congress will elect the defeated Nacionalista Party Presidential standard bearer as the Senate President. And if the Lower House will, by great maneuver (which means more than a billion pesos changing hands) have Rep. Gloria Arroyo as Speaker and Senator Manny Villar as Senate President then we will have the Villaroyo in flesh and blood giving hell to Noynoy Aquino Administration. They can even have impeachment upon impeachment cases against Noynoy Aquino while they are initiating moves to change the 1987 Philippine Constitution.


A Need to Review Our Perspective

Almost everybody has been taken in for a ride because of the extra-ordinary swiftness of the results of the automated elections has delivered. Many of us have overlooked that in elections (even in automated ones) there are several processes like voting, canvassing, transmitting and proclaiming which all have contributory role in a successful, democratic exercise. And we were just stunt by the swift transition. Facts have started to reveal that cheating and other forms of fraud happened in the pre-voting and actual voting phases. Again many of us forgot that a new form/method of voting/election if done in the same old context of traditional politics and warlordism, one cannot expect much of a change.

Interventions from all stakeholders should take this reality seriously in order to effect substantial change in expressing our democratic rights through elections.

Meanwhile, our protest movements are geared towards the twin objectives of realizing the change in the regime because the big lead of more than 5 million votes by Senator Noynoy Aquino over his closest rival is enough sign for all to see that the peoples in the Philippines have express their will and no amount of dilatory tactics can stop in it realization and second, making sure that the democratic and sovereign interest of the peoples in the country should be the main considerations of the new elected government.

The twin objectives should always be put into primary considerations especially because this early on it is becoming obvious that different groups inside the Aquino camps have begun to quarrel over the spoils of victory after this political war.

Only the peoples’ movement and vigilance can surely remind and stop them (different groups) from thinking only of their own narrow interests. The peoples have not elected Senator Noynoy Aquino as their president just so as these groups namely Hyatt 10 and the Kamag-anak Inc. will be back in power over the interest of the people.

In the same perspective, the peoples’ movement should be aware that the electoral protests against the result of the May 10, 2010 elections would not give the Arroyo camp a chance in the furtherance of its most hated government. These protests should be addressed to the Arroyo camp including its election arm – the COMELEC - and not to the people democratically elected by the overwhelming numbers of the peoples’ in the Philippines. The Arroyo camp should be made accountable to all these mess and problems they have created and does not have an intention to bring into positive fruition. The Aquino Presidency and the people should closely work together to correct the system which has created traditional politics and warlordism. Only through this that a genuine democratic exercise such as election can be transparent and credibly reflect the true sentiments of the people.

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"The Ampatuans have been known to be Arroyo’s warlords and therefore could not be genuinely identified as rebels otherwise this move will again end up on Arroyo’s doorsteps."

The Quid Pro Quo

The private army and the enormous wealth of the Ampatuans have been arrogantly displayed for the entire world to see since they have had a quid pro quo relationship with the Arroyo regime. That is the Ampatuans can have the sky as the limit for their wealth and power as long as they can help the Arroyo to stay in power.

The brigade size Civilian Armed Forces Geographical Unit (CAFGU), the more than battalion size Special Civilian Auxiliary Army (SCAA) and Civilian Volunteers Organization (CVO), were all trained by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP) respectively. They are armed with weapons far sophisticated and high powered than AFP and PNP combined armaments but everybody knows even the higher ups of the trainors that these units have been treated by the Ampatuans as their private armies and personal security units whose main tasks were not only to protect the whole clan but also to secure and guard the twenty eight (28) mansions with built-in money vaults in them. These scandalously big and very expensive mansions worth billions of pesos are located throughout the country. In some of these places, they are built in the midst of peoples’ shanties as if wanting to present a contrast of heaven and earth or hell depending on one’s perspective.

One month ago, such situation seemed untouchable and nobody dared to even try to rock such arrangement. Everybody has known that there is a direct connection of the Ampatuans and Malacañang. The miraculous victory of Mrs Arroyo over the Muslims’ idol Fernando Poe Jr in 2004 Presidential Elections providing Commission on Election Commissioner Garcilliano a secured hiding place during the Hello Garci Scandal and the mysterious 12-0 victory of Mrs Arroyo senatorial slate in the province in 2007 elections have been, too glaring to ignore such symbiotic relationship.

The November 23: Quo Vadis?

After the November 23, 2009 infamous Maguindanao Massacre where fifty seven (57) people majority of whom are journalists and lawyers and supporters of a rival clan were brutally murdered and mutilated, the picture which was painted above seemed to turn upside down.

The whole nation and the world have reacted to the gruesome and very inhuman acts of killing the 57 people on the road to file and witness a democratic exercise thru filing of Candidacy to the provincial Commission on Election (COMELEC) office. Everybody believes that act could only be done by monsters and all signs and footprints have sharply pointed to the Ampatuans.

Mrs. Arroyo and Malacañang were put on the spot. They know that they have created these monsters and their inaction (as in the past creating an atmosphere of impunity) would surely point back to their direction and the world especially the country could not forgiven them. Damage control measures like expulsion of the clan from the Ruling Party and arresting or “inviting” one of the monsters would perhaps reassures and lessens the anger of the people. Aside from reassuring the people, Malacañang would want to show that it does not tolerate such act. The main reason for the damage control measure is to buy time and lay down the foundation of creating an impression of the distancing Mrs. Arroyo from the Ampatuans at the same time thinking of ways to save the Ampatuans and hence saving Mrs Arroyo from possible revelation of the Ampatuans’ aces against her.

Martial Law a Solution to Maguindanao Massacre or an Exit Plan?

The declaration of Martial Law in Maguindanao is the best option because it will have reason to arrest and isolate the Ampatuans and to make sure that they can not speak against Arroyo. The Arroyo regime can launch search and seizure activities against the Ampatuan in the guise of looking for guns and military hardware it had provided or sold in the past but actually it is looking and securing the 2004 and 2007 electoral evidences against Arroyo and the Ruling Party.

The problem is: the constitutional justifications of Martial Law, which are invasion and rebellion, are not present in Maguindanao. Ampatuan Jr. had tried to implicate the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and nobody believed him. The Ampatuans have been known to be Arroyo’s warlords and therefore could not be genuinely identified as rebels otherwise this move will again end up on Arroyo’s doorsteps.

The constitution says the President has to report to a joint session of Congress 48 hours after the declaration of Martial Law. The Congress with a simple majority vote can revoke the declaration of Martial Law. Again this gives Mrs. Arroyo a breathing space – the Congress especially its lower house will unashamedly give Mrs. Arroyo their approval for Maguindanao Martial Law and then they can have their pork barrels which have been withheld up to the present.

The problem of the Arroyos’ allies in the lower house is that they have to make the decision to support her which means making the unpopular position not good with the elections of 2010 coming.

Furthermore Maguindanao is a known stronghold of the MILF and they have been waging rebellion for decades and peace talks have just restarted. This explains the words “except for some places in Maguindanao” Martial Law is effected.

And to put more salt to the wounds of the Ampatuans, the Commission on Audit (COA) has finally seen that the wealth, money in vaults, fleet of luxurious cars and more than two dozens mansions do not correspond to the income of the clan most of whom are politicians. But actually the findings will be used later against the clan if they insist on divulging what they know about Mrs. Arroyo and the Ruling Party in 2004 and 2007 elections respectively.

The November 23 and May 2010 and Beyond

Have all the above mentioned points led to the declaration of Martial Law in Maguindanao? Not so. The gruesome November 23 Massacre was a disaster waiting to happen. Mrs. Arroyo has created the monsters and the monsters have known no limit to crimes they can commit. They have been doing this kind of crime in the past and the only difference was that they were done to smaller number of people and less known entities. The disaster might be for us and maybe for the monsters but as the trend now says it can be another opportunity to answer another question for Mrs. Arroyo – her exit plan.

With Congress secured in her pockets and the Departments of Justice, National Defense and Interior and Local government they can create situation similar to November 23 event in other parts of the country. And the Arroyo regime can depend on people like Teddy Locsin the divided CBCP/Church and Bankers to justify its Martial Law as the last resort or whatever. And at the end of the day, many of us have been made to believe that she is running for Congress in the Second District of Pampanga. And looking into the eyes of Secretaries Puno, Gonzales and Devenadera one can say that Mrs. Arroyo and themselves have more years to stay put in their respective positions. Only that they are more powerful than before.

Martial Law in Maguindanao is indeed an answer to another question. And by the time many of us will know the answer, Mrs. Arroyo changes the question. Or lift up the Martial Law in Maguindanao only to declare it again in other vote-rich province in the country. What matters most is that it has set the historical precedence.

Photo: Members of the Young Advocates for Peace and Solidarity (YAPS) in Cotabato City joined in a vigil protest to call for Justice to the victims of the November 23 massacre and against the Martial Law in Maguindanao.

Last January 20, 2010, a third hearing of the principal suspect of the Maguindanao massacre Andal Ampatuan, Jr was held in Quezon City. It was a hearing on bail which the lawyers of the suspect requested so as to have him outside of the detention but making him available for hearings. It was during the hearing that the prosecutors presented the third witness after the second witness withdrew saying that his earlier signed affidavit was made under duress. The day before the hearing families and the widows of the slain journalists filed a case to the Ombudsman in Mindanao against military officials namely Major General Alfredo Cayton (the 6th Infantry Division Commander) and Colonel Medardo Geslani (then the 601st Brigade Commander) who were not only cleared in their role in the Maguindanao massacre but have also been promoted.

Meanwhile, nothing can be heard on the situation of Andal Ampatuan, Sr. who is staying in the Eastern Mindanao Command (EASTMIN Com) headquarters under Lt. General Reynaldo Ferrer who was the 6th ID Commander two years ago when the Ampatuans ruled over Maguindanao. Nothing also can be heard on the Ampatuans housed in the Criminal Investigation and Detention Group or CIDG in General Santos City, except that once in a while some media people could see them outside of their so called detention center.

We have not heard any development on what happened to the billions of pesos and millions of dollars which had been taken out from the vaults of the Ampatuans mansions. Aside from the presence of Secretary Jess Dureza in the Ampatuan mansion when he negotiated the surrender of the Andal Jr. and the convoy which came out from the Shariff Aguak mansion during the night bringing the so called evidence to General Santos City. The convoy’s night trip was only exposed or known to the public because it was ambushed or fired upon by unknown persons almost similar to the incident when the helicopter where Secretary Dureza was fired upon when it left the Ampatuan mansion with Andal Jr.

And no explanation yet has been heard about the arsenal of weapons and bullets which have been found in the properties of the Ampatuans. Discoveries of more weapons and bullets have continued up to today. Many of the weapons and bullets were marked as government properties.

And worst, nothing can be heard about the members and officers of the Philippine National Police and Civilian Volunteer Organizations who had been directly identified together with the principal suspect when the most cruel and inhuman acts were done to the fifty seven (57) people including the wife and relatives of Toto Mangudadatu, their two women lawyers, journalists and the drivers including those who happened to pass on the road of Maguindanao on November 23, 2009.

The Making of the Warlords

The Ampatuans have started to amass their wealth and accumulate their military hardware in the early years of the Arroyo administration. At the time of President Estrada’s declaration of an all-out war against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) it was also a time when the Ampatuans had formally severed their relationship with the MILF. Before that, it had been known in the Maguindanao areas that the Ampatuans had been in amicable relationship with the MILF even giving them regular logistical supports.

The AFP’s 6th Infantry Division at that time (or even today) is outnumbered and even outgunned by the MILF with the ratio of almost 2 to 1 and hence, it greatly needed the help of the civilians who could be armed and could be funded by friendly politicians but also considered the MILF as a threat, hence, the start of arming the followers of the Ampatuans.

Mrs. Arroyo had seen the potential of the Ampatuans especially that 2004 elections were coming and she knew very well that she needed aside from political machineries, the military and the likes of Ampatuan who could be trusted to follow her order in exchange of limitless financial and military logistical support. The victory of Mrs. Arroyo in 2004 elections was made possible by the Muslim Mindanao votes, especially from Maguindanao. Thus, began their symbiotic relationship. In the guise of its fight against the MILF the Ampatuan had begun to build up its own army and acquire sophisticated weapons which everybody knew that it could only be possible with the help and approval of the army and the police. The obvious unique relationship between the Ampatuan and their Commander in Chief aside from a direct order from her, both the army and police gave whatever the Ampatuans requested or turned their heads away when the acts of the Ampatuans were contrary to the laws. In fact, it is a public knowledge that from the Division Chief of the Army up to at least the battalion levels as well as the Regional Chief up to the provincial commander of the Police had received generous gifts from the Ampatuans in the tune of five millions to a million each depending on their level of responsibilities.

It is no wonder that during the 2006 controversy of the Hello Garci scandal or the 2007 senatorial election when the Commission on Election (COMELEC) Provincial Officer Lintang Bedol got entangled to widespread election fraud in favor of Mrs. Arroyo and the senatorial slate of the ruling party respectively. It was in the province of Maguindanao that Garcilliano and Bedol had hidden and nobody but nobody dared to locate or touch them.

Through the years the Ampatuans had built up their private army and collected weapons which could fully arm a division. The political favors from Mrs. Arroyo had been fully maximized by the Ampatuans beyond the province of Maguindanao. All Andal’s Sr’s sons were made mayors or he created new municipalities and place his other sons as mayors and other relatives as councilors. The traditional ruling elites of the Moro had to vow to the new paramount elite or joined him through intermarriages. The MILF could not get him for he became elusive and had himself surrounded by many bodyguards. He built mansions anywhere so as not to make a pattern of his whereabouts.

With Maguindanao solidified in his control Andal Sr wanted to grab political positions in the ARMM and with Arroyo’s blessings and support his son Zaldy became the governor of ARMM. With his political base expanded so also his economic and military powers.

Anybody who dared to oppose his wish and command would surely meet their uncivilized death. Whatever the Ampatuans want the Ampatuans get. Be these the lands, properties and even persons like if they are interested with women they could always get their way.

The feelings of impunity in committing crimes for the Ampatuans had started long time ago. Their abuses of their power had reached its height that in the middle of last year there were several meetings which took place in different areas in and outside Mindanao where most of the old and current ruling elite and political leaders of the Bangsamoro to discuss how to unite and work together to stop the seemingly unstoppable and the unsatisfiable greed for power by the Ampatuans. The family of the Mangudadato was one of these families. There was strong belief that the Ampatuans had sensed such a move. And the result was the bloodiest and cruelest election related massacre of November 23, 2009.

The Sponsors and the Co-sponsors of the November 23, 2009 Disaster

The Maguindanao massacre was a disaster waiting to happen. It had been made possible by the evolution of events and moves not by the Ampatuans alone. Mrs. Gloria Arroyo first and foremost had created the Ampatuans as signs of paying her gratitude for her 2004 victory over the legendary hero of the Bangsamoro-Fernando Poe Jr. The 12-0 results of the senatorial elections in favor of the ruling party of Mrs. Arroyo with Mr. Chavit Singson from the Northern part of the Philippines as number one setting a precedent that a non Muslim candidate became number one in a Muslim area and controlled by a Muslim politician. Chavit’s qualification was simply he was a gambling partner of Andal Sr. when they played anywhere in the world’s casinos, had given the Ampatuan the feeling that they could manipulate the votes and make or unmake a politician.

The military and the police establishments have also contributed a lot in the making of Ampatuans. They provided the arm and muscles of the latter knowing fully well that those favors were not anymore for the war against the MILF but against all those who dared to oppose the whims and caprices of the Ampatuans. For instance, the East Mindanao Commander who became the Martial Law administrator and custodian of Andal Sr was the head of the 6th Infantry Division during the peak of Ampatuans’s power. Shortly before Lt. General Reynaldo Ferrer was promoted to the East Mindanao Command there was a big fire in the armory of the 6ID. This is why it would not be surprising if many of the weapons of the Ampatuans were coming from the supplies of the 6th Infantry Division.

There is even no need to continuously raid the different mansions of the Ampatuans in different parts of the country to discover the source of these weapons. A thorough and objective investigation will surely lead us to the Department of National Defense and its units in Mindanao. Unless those raids are meant to locate the millions if not billions of pesos the Ampatuans and not really to find those missing weapons and bullets.

The traditional politicians have also big role to play in the making of the Ampatuans. A case in point here is Representative Simon Datumanong, a close ally of Mrs. Arroyo. He represents the second district of Maguindanao which is the main political and economic base of the Ampatuans. He is the nephew of Andal Sr. All these years, one could never heard anything from Representive Datumanong except when he protested the short lived declaration of Martial Law in the province.

And last but not the least is the role of the religious in the making of the Ampatuans. Religious here refers to practicing of faith be it Islamic or Christianism. It is important to note that almost all of the children of Andal Sr had been studying to religious schools (Notre Dames). What values have been inculcated or imparted by the teachings of these schools on the young Ampatuans. Or much commercial aspects and less moral and spiritual values have been the concerned of these so called religious schools. Where have been the religious leaders from both faiths all those years when the Ampatuans were committing those crimes before the November 23, 2009? Or were they playing footsie with this devil incarnate but the first to justify the declaration of Martial Law to save their mentors and friends.

Beyond November 23...

The November 23, 2009 Maguindanao Massacre was done by the Ampatuans but with the help of the people mentioned above. Genuine Justice can only be achieved if all those who were involved should resign first. Otherwise, many would believe that the whole process of arresting and prosecuting Andal Jr. and the detentions of the Andal Sr. and his sons are part of the divisionary and cover up moves by Mrs. Arroyo, her allies and the military and the police to save themselves. In fact since the short lived declaration of Martial Law had been considered as unconstitutional and on this basis Andal Sr and his sons were arrested and detained for crime of rebellion, one should not be surprised that one day while the whole nation is focused on events like the boxing of Manny Pacquiao, Andal Sr and his sons will just freely walk away from their detention centers and resurface their billions and reclaim their power. And then another massacre is about to happen. This time much worse than the massacre two months ago today. This will be the massacre of our democracy. With their billions and connections they can create situations in the whole of Mindanao so as the failure of elections will be guaranteed. And then they will live happily ever after with their mentor.

IT’S ELECTIONS’ TIME: COMELEC’S MISSION IMPOSIBLE?

Since the last quarter of 2009, the country has been on election mode. Politicians from traditional to the so-called new politics advocates have been spending millions of pesos in packaging and selling themselves to the people thru the tri-media. They have to do the campaigning in so many ways and means so as not to be accused of premature campaigning only to find out lately that the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) has declared that there could never be premature campaigning for politicians who have not officially declared themselves as candidates.

The May 2010 national and local elections will be the most awaited political event not only because a new President will be elected after the long nine years but also because for the first time the elections will be automated on the national scale. But today, less than four months to Election Day, it seems that the long wait will be filled with anxieties and fear. People have been worried that an automated election will be not realized because signs have shown that the COMELEC will have “mission impossible” in implementing them. There are eighty-two thousand (82,000) machines needed for the automated counting of votes. As of today, there are only 30,000 machines which have arrived and have not been tested for their performance and accuracy. In one of the performed tests, one machine was able to read/accept sixty (60) ballots out of 600 ballots fed into the machine.

Today, there are forty seven (47) million voters which should be counted and which will be will be further multiplied in one thousand six hundred thirty (1,630) municipalities with the untested and unproven machines for the automated counting on top of only around 30% of them have arrived yet. At this period, the number of people who are raising questions on the capability and feasibility of COMELEC in having the automated election nationwide has been increasing. The worst thing is, there is no alternative option being prepared by the COMELEC just in case the automated counting machines will not work out.

FAILURE OF ELECTIONS: AN OPTION FOR A SOLUTION

This fearful scenario had led to more and more people to think that indeed a “Failure of Elections” is a serious option among others entertained by the current dispensation to stay longer after nine years in power.

On the same frame of mind, many have understood the controversy on the retirement of the Chief Justice and the Judicial Bar council (JBC). The important role that the Supreme Court will play in results if the election and is more vital role if failure of election will be declared.

It has started from the allies of Mrs. Arroyo to initiate the nomination for the next Chief Justice of the Supreme Court since the sitting Chief Justice will be retiring on May 17, 2010, ten days after the elections. The controversy stems from the violation of the 1987 constitution of the country if Mrs. Arroyo appoints the chief Justice it will be considered as midnight appointment, besides for those who do not agree with allowing Mrs. Arroyo to appoint the Chief Justice , they believe that it will be appropriate to let the new President to do the job and the 1987 Constitution gives ninety (90) days for the appointment or filling in of the vacant seat which is more than enough time after June 30, 2010. Mrs. Arroyo had already appointed all the sitting Associated Chief Justices in the Supreme Court in the period of nine years except for the current Chief Justice.

The role of the chief Justice of the SC is important especially in the context of the coming elections where the position of the President, Vice president, Senate President, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives will be vacant. But everybody knows that the Supreme Court is a collegial body and therefore the CJ has only one vote just like the rest.

The maneuver from the allies of Mrs. Arroyo would want the people to think that the issue is for Arroyo to eagerly appoint the CJ but it can also be a camouflage or a cover up of affecting change in the Constitutions especially so that the JBC and the SC justices would agree to the power of Mrs. Arroyo to appoint the CJ disregarding the important part of the constitution (Section 15 of Article VII). Mrs. Arroyo and her allies have tried all means and ways to change the Constitution but these failed because they were opposed by the people.

Again this leads many people to think that Mrs. Arroyo’s unprecedented running for the 2nd district of Pampanga in May 2010 elections is a diversionary move to make us believe that she is indeed leaving the Presidency but signs have been manifested that a possible hold over capacity on presidency can be created by the unfolding situation. This scenario can only be possible with the support of the military and police institutions. Mrs. Arroyo has already planted seeds in these institutions to prepare for such situation. The occupation of PMA class of 1978 of the strategic positions in both the police and the military clearly point to this direction. Mrs. Arroyo is an adapted daughter of PMA class 1978.

THE MINDANAO FACTOR

Another disturbing trend is the events silently unfolding in Mindanao. The talks between the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) have been going on in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia with an objective of signing a Peace Agreement before the term of Mrs. Arroyo expires.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had delivered a strong message to Mrs. Arroyo that the US wants a Peace Agreement signed before the latter goes out of office and the US will have a new and veteran ambassador to the Philippines to ensure that its interest will be carried out the soonest.

The urgency of the US agenda in the GRP-MILF peace agreement is not so much on its genuine interests on the tri-people in Mindanao but on the fast emerging influence on the Philippines by China. Surely there will be multi-conflict of interests in the process of achieving a signed Peace Agreement. The core issue which should be given qualitative consideration here is the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) which was the main reason of the failure of the first Memorandum of Agreement on ancestral domain (MOA-AD) between the GRP-MILF in 2008. It has been said that there are reformulations of concepts and territorial scopes but the essence is the same only the participation of the Bishops-Ulamas have been added to the previous process. The role of the Bishops and Ulamas at present is to conduct genuine consultations in all the communities of the tripeople stakeholders which will be affected by the new BJE. To date, we have not heard of such consultations much less the results of the consultations aside from the attempts to negotiate with some tribal leaders and groups from the affected part of the Indigenous peoples in Mindanao.

The MILF will seemingly like to have a Peace Agreement signed with the Arroyo government because at present the failed state situation of the Philippines, they can extract the maximum gains from a weak and seemingly powerless government and prepare for legitimacy of an armed option if the next government will not recognize the peace agreement and with the full backing of the International Community which had witnessed the peace process and its ultimate signing.

The Arroyo government will surely like to have a peace agreement signed with the MILF to have a legacy for the Arroyo government that indeed they are sincere in having peace in the island of Mindanao in particular and the country in general. But then again, activities on the ground show the contrary is happening. People led by prominent Christian/Migrant politicians have prepared themselves to oppose the new MOA-AD by all means including armed opposition. And if the signing of the MOA-AD happens before the May 2010 election, one could not just imagine the situation in Mindanao. Surely, Mindanao voters can easily comprise 30% of the total votes of the country. And the law says that if there will be failure of elections in at least 30% of the total voting population then a national failure of elections can be declared.

THE CLASH of the TITANS

But the worst thing which can happen as a direct result of the peace process between the GRP and MILF will be the clash of the geopolitical interests of the US and China.

The US with its allies will like to have more influence in Mindanao via the MILF-GRP talks because of their perception that China has gained ground in the Arroyo administration and even beyond through its huge investments and control of the country’s economy. To date, there is a free trade agreement which was signed by China and the 10 Asian Nations which includes the Philippines in the early part of this year. This is called China-Asean Freetrade Agreement or CAFTA in which one of the main points in the agreement is to lower the tariff set by China and ASEAN of their products.

Everybody knows that China has been flooding the world market with its cheap products. CAFTA will be clearly a one sided agreement in favor of China. Currently, with the economic crisis being experienced by the US, it could not cope up with these Chinese initiatives. The US tends to consider the Philippines with the occupants in Malacanang a failed state and it will take a long time even for a new government to correct such situation. It prefers therefore to have a change in the constitution (aside from a regime change) to let a dynamic Mindanao develop together with its neighboring islands and countries. A federal form of government in the country will be more than enough to suit such arrangement which the US hopes to isolate China in the process.

In the event that a MOA-AD will be signed between the GRP and the MILF and an armed reactions from the traditional Christian politicians with different Christian families against the government and the MILF aside from the direct effects of these armed reactions on the national elections, it will be interesting to know the reactions of the two super powers: the US and China.

One can almost see which of the global powers will be helping whom that is GRP or the MILF. It will be good for us to study what happened in Sri Lanka especially during the period with the government of Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) were about to sign a peace agreement – a very bloody war broke up which caused thousands of deaths and millions of Tamil people have been dislocated. And not surprisingly, the same global powers were involved. Only that China has gotten the upper hand with the SRILangkan government and the US and its allies got an empty bag with the defeat of the LTTE.

The “Must” That We Should Do!

With May 2010 fast approaching so many possible and complicated events can evolve. We cannot rely much on our leader politicians because by the time the official campaign period will start next month everybody has pulled down anybody who would be above them in surveys or in popularity.

We expect these mudslinging’s to intensify as the elections time gets nearer. Each one will be busy depending and attacking anyone that they could not notice the maneuver of Mrs. Arroyo. Everybody is talking about the failure of elections scenario but very few are talking about what can be our concrete alternative.

We should first get our acts together and prepare to manually count the filled in automated ballots so that a failure of elections can never be made an option. This act needs volunteers on the national and local levels. We should also continuously expose those politicians who are only minding their own interests. First and foremost they should not be elected. Those who are running for re elections in different levels should be voted or not voted on the merits of their tract records.

Let us keep our eyes watchful on the appointment of the Supreme Court Chief Justice. The next President should be the appointing authority.

Let us call all the Stakeholders to actively participate in the Peace building process in Mindanao. This is not only about the GRP and MILF. This is not only about the Bangsamoro. This is not only about the three peoples of Mindanao. This is for building sustainable peace in Mindanao and the whole country.

Let us build Peace in Mindanao and
Let us help develop our country.

Some Notes on the Current Philippine Situation
Richard S. Solis
April 28, 2010
3rd of 4th

Homestretching for May 10, 2010 Elections

Barely two weeks to go before the May 10, 2010 Local and National Elections, observers can easily see the political operators from the camp of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) making their moves covering all aspects that can block or delay their plan on election day and post June 30, 2010 (the day when GMA will turn over power to the new elected president). In fact as the days to these dates go nearer, one is almost certain that there can never be a democratic transition of power from GMA to the next elected President. Or more accurately one can never be sure now if a new President can ever be elected and be proclaimed. The more the spokepersons of GMA try to explain and refute arguments on these points, the more people believe that May 10, 2010 elections will just be a date that everybody has waited for but in vain. Neither the explanation of the COMELEC can help calm the peoples’ apprehension. The automated elections which have been conducted in overseas voting like in Hongkong and Singapore will attest to the basis of peoples’ worries. The two Precinct Count Optical Scanning (PCOS) machines had bugged down and it took Smartmatic operators 45 minutes to correct or replace the machines. The reason, the machines and the ballots were kept in not so suitable place. So there goes the COMELEC assertion that the machines are all area specific which means that each machine is made to function in specific area in terms of climate and location.

The civil society as well as the business community have been proposing a parallel manual count to the positions of President, Vice-President, governors and mayors just to make sure that alternative safeguards can be in placed to compensate the absence of security aspects of the PCOS e.g. ultra-violate, to be a credible referrrence just incase PCOS machines which are nationally untested will not work out. In other words, to eliminate possible reasons and scenario about having a failure of elections. And as of today signs are there to see that the COMELEC and the GMA camp and their allies will not approve such proposed precautionary steps.

The move of the Acting Defense Secretary (Norberto Gonzales) of going around and meeting the battalion commanders of the Army is not reassuring either. Doing his rounds up to the battalion level is not ordinary work of a man in charge of National Defense especially if the same man made the statement not so long ago that if there will be failure of elections in May 10, 2010, there is a need to form a transition government which will be formed by Civilian-Military Junta. These moves of the Defense Secretary do not follow the chain of command of the AFP but surely the Defense Secretary is following an order from his Commander in Chief.

The homestretch of the campaign of the candidates, especially the Presidentiables has added more stress and anxieties for the conscious and organized sectors of the voters because they know that such scenario fits very well to GMA’s plan. As of this stage of the campaign, only four of the seven Presidential candidates are still holding on to their political bases and continue to convince and win over other voters. Although the three other candidates (there are seven Presidential candidates for May 10, 2010 elections) have not consistently made it in all the surveys conducted since the official campaign has started. The other top four have more or less improved their standing with Noynoy Aquino (the son of

former President Corazon Aquino) consistently topping all the surveys, Manny Villar the only billionaire businessman candidate, who after getting very near in the survey to Noynoy Aquino last month, has consistently gone down in terms of rating, the former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada has consistently move up in the survey, in fact, getting very near to Manny Villar and Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro - the former Defense Secretary and the official candidate of the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD who had moved up a little but still hopeful that the machineries the local government units which accordingly controls 70%-80% of the areas of the country can still make miracle in the immediate period before the May 10, 2010 elections

During this critical period, the attacks against each other among the Presidentiables have become intensified and viciously dirtier by the day. Each candidate, especially the losing one (in terms of survey) would take any opportunity to destroy the candidate above him. And at the same time, these candidates would want to use any means including their mothers or celebrities to get sympathy and win over voters. For these candidates it seems that sky is the limit of using any means and opportunity to destroy their opponents and win over the electorates. But the abovementioned situation can only be observed in the so-called the “Oppositions” while the Administration candidate (the last among the four leading candidates) are slowly gaining points, careful not at the expense of the other three candidates and readying himself for a miracle to happen a few days before elections. And the more the situation becomes nastier and uglier, the more the game plan of the Arroyo becoming feasible and acceptable.

The very recent moves (as well as no moves) of the Supreme Court have been very disturbing. It had decided last week with finality (amidst various protests and complaints from different groups and sectors of society), that GMA can appoint the Chief Justice even days before she is suppposed to hand over power to the next president. And yet up to now the same Supreme Court has not acted upon on the pleas of various sectors declaring Presidential Proclamation 1959 placing Maguindanao and neighboring province and city under Martial Law after the November 23, 2009 Maguindanao Massacre as illegal and unconstitutional. The implication of this non-action of the Supreme Court on this proclamation is that if GMA and her camp see again similar situation in any part of the country, she can always use Pres. Proc. 1959 to control the area and even control the results of the elections.

The Ampatuan Factor

It has come out to an open now, that the spokeperson, senatorial candidate of the Nationalist Party, Gilbert Remulla, had visited and met with former Governor Andal Ampatuan, Sr, the patriarch of the Ampatuan clan and suspected to be the perpetuators of the November 23, 2009 Maguindanao Massacre. During that time, while Ampatuan, Sr was still in military detention of Eastern Mindanao Command (EastMinCom) in Davao (now he stays in Bicutan Detention Center in Manila) and was also visited by the majority of the Maguindanao municipal mayors seeking his (Ampatuan, Sr) endorsement and support. It should be noted that Ampatuan, Sr is running for Vice-Governor in the Province of Maguindanao. Supposedly as independent, his governor and all the mayors who visited him to get his support were from the Nationalist Party. Earlier on, everybody had seen Andal Jr, the main suspect for the massacre of 57 people including 32 journalists, wearing the election paraphernalia and campaign color of the Nationalist Party when he was transferred from his cell.

This move from the Nationalist Party has shown that if it takes to talk to the devil just to get additional support and votes, it will do it. In desperate times one can have desperate moves.

It should also be recalled that the hate of peoples against the Ampatuans has not abated but had been grossly underestimated by the Arroyo camp. Thinking that if one or two Ampatuans could be released then the lesser the possibility that their (Ampatuan) threat to expose what they had done for the presidency of Arroyo in 2004 elections, would be achieved during this critical period of the elections when the GMA camp has to focus on their moves and cannot afford to be diverted by such potential political damage. The implementation of this plan could be done through the Department of Justice (DOJ). The timing of the clearing of the two Ampatuans and eventual release was highly suspicious. Almost one month before the election which made others think that the two Ampatuans (suspended ARMM Governor Zaldy Ampatuan and former Vice Governor of Maguindanao Akmed Ampatuan) would be used to help the agenda of the Arroyo camp. The announcement was also a suspect, it was a Friday and two days after the DOJ Secretary told the relatives of the Maguindanao victims of the massacre that he (Secretary Agra) had not made yet a decision in favor of the Ampatuans. Only the intensity and the widespread reactions and anger of the people to this decision of Secretary Agra to literally pirate the case of Ampatuan from the jurisdiction of the Court to the Ampatuans before the hearing of the case could start, have made the Arroyo camp backtracked and washed its hands on the act of the DOJ which is under the Office of the President and the DOJ Secretary is an alter ego of Arroyo in administering Justice in the country. And everybody does not believe that Arroyo has nothing to do with the order to clear the two Ampatuans. And nobody believes that such move has nothing to do with the forthcoming May 10, 2010 elections. In fact, the clearing act was supposed to be implemented before the Ampatuan would be transferred to their present detention cells where they could be monitored. It is strongly believed that the heavily armed militia of the Ampatuans are still very much active and present in many parts of Maguindanao and this armed and dangerous group could be of great help to the Arroyo scenario if properly and actually commanded by the Ampatuans themselves and not just by proxies or by cellular phones. It could be a best timing with the expected signing of an Interim Peace Agreement between the GRP and the MILF sometime in the 1st week of May – one week before elections.

It has been proven time and time again that warlords such as the Ampatuans can help make and unmake the presidency or an administration for that matter. The experiences of 2004 and the 2007 elections have still impacted to the traditional way of politicking. And as the election day nears, the more the traditional politicians and the Arroyo camp are needing the services of these warlords. The creation of the GMA camp of a Presidential Commission to disband all the warlords in the country is surely just for show in the light of the Maguindanao Massacre.

And if this is done hastenly out of sheer desperation, it could also backfire. When a press conference was called by the jail authorities in behalf of Andal Ampatuan, Jr. just to announce to the country that the Ampatuan clan was supporting the Presidential bid of the Liberal Party standard bearer Noynoy Aquino, nobody believed it and that even those whom they are endorsing would not appreciate it, then it did not only go back to the bad intentions of the planner of this act but it especially reinforces that belief that everybody has already known about the collusion of Arroyo and the so-called opposition party of Manny Villar and the Nationalist Party. They obviously misjudged the whole picture of giving a kiss of death to Noynoy Aquino’s candidacy because of the very negative reaction of people when the DOJ cleared the 2 Ampatuans. Besides, the actions of the Ampatuans in the not so distant past were clearly for Villar. The Arroyo and Villar camps are now reaping the fruits of such political misjudgment.



The latest results of surveys where the gap of Nonoy Aquino over Villar is widening simply say that it is not because Nonoy is becoming more popular but it is because Manny Villar is becoming unpopular especially when he is linked more and more with the Arroyo camp.

The Games of the Generals

Central to the end game scenario of the Arroyo camp is the game that the generals will play. The division within the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP) has also intensified and becoming obvious as the election day nears. The Arroyo camp has began its consolidation and positioning of the AFP and the PNP since 2004. The unstable situation brought about by the fraudulent 2004 election of Arroyo and the important if not decisive role of the AFP to stabilize the situation in favor of Arroyo, has made the resolve of un-elected President to rely more and more on her generals to continue to cling to her power and the undying loyalty of the generals to her in getting promotions and juicy positions in the AFP and PNP heirarchy. The movements within the AFP and the PNP in terms of retirements and promoting have been programmed in the framework of the Arroyo’s end game scenario. Generals were offered ambassadorial posts if they retire early so that the movement will pave the way for the strategic positioning of the Philippine Military Academy (PMA) Class ’78, which adopted Mrs. Arroyo as their honorary member and made the promotion possible that the class should have taken control of the command of the AFP and the PNP. And as it was mentioned earlier, aside from the Chief of Staff of the AFP, all the major commands of the AFP are controlled by the Class ’78 and eight divisions out of ten have been commanded the same class, including the National Capital Region (NCR) Command of the AFP (Defense of NCR) as well as its counterpart in the PNP.

In Mindanao, aside from the two area commands, Eatern Mindanao Command (EastMinCom) and the Western Mindanao Command (WestMinCom) and the 10th Division Commander, all the rest are controlled by the PMA ’78 Class. All the area commands in the Visayas and Luzon as well are under the effective control of the same class. Only the EastMinCom and WestMinCom area commands as well as the Director General of the PNP are still in control of PMA Classes 1977 and 1976 respectively.

Such positioning has deeply divided the AFP and the PNP because only one class has been given undue advantage over other classes expecially the senior classes of ’77 and ’76, many of whom have outstanding records and meritorious performances. It is not hard therefore to understand the feelings and sentiments of the other classes. An obvious example of this situation is the case of Lieutenant General Reymundo Ferrer of the EastMinCom, the largest area command of the AFP and under the command are three divisions (4th Division, 6th Division and the 10th Division) or 40% of the total AFP regular forces. The 10th Division commander under Lt. General Ferrer was Major General Mapagu, who later became the Commanding General of the Army, the immediate higher Command of the EastMinCom. In terms of merits and performance and seniority, it should be Lt. General Ferrer but the difference is Major General Mapagu belongs to PMA Class 1978 while Lt. General Ferrer belongs to PMA Class 1977.

The attempt to replace the Director General of the PNP who belongs to PMA Class ’76 by another from Class 1978 and the current NCR Director of the PNP General Rosales has been postponed because of the solid support the Director General Jesus Versoza getsf rom the rank and file of the PNP as well as the PMA Alumni Association of active and retired generals.

At present, the Arroyo camp and its generals have been covertly and mostly doing the surveillance to those generals and officers of both the AFP and PNP who they (Arroyo generals) think will make difficulties in implementing their game plan before, during and after the May 10, 2010 elections.

The moves of Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales to go down on the Army Battalion levels have many observers worry of his real intentions. It must be performing the extraordinary mission because he has been bypassing the command system of the AFP. He (Sec Gonzales) has been monitored lately to campaign in the Battalion levels for the Nationalist Party standard bearer Manny Villar over the Administration standard bearer and former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro whom he (Gonzales) temporarily replaced.

The movements of the Garci Generals (those generals who are involved in 2004 election to make Arroyo become President) who have promoted and now many of them are retired but occupied strategic positions within the civilian bureaucracy are clearly in support of the Arroyo’s end game.

Less than two weeks to go and the picture of the Arroyo camp to perpetuate themselves to power is becoming crystal clear.

Factoring Mindanao and the Mindanao Factor

The 30% of votes (out of 50.2million) which the COMELEC has considered for manual counting are found mainly in Mindanao. It has been known that critics of the automated manner of election is worried, that a malversation hardware can be installed in the Precinct Counting Optical Scanning (PCOS) which could be used to effect the adding and shaving (dagdag-bawas) of votes. But many more are worried in the manual voting and counting especially in Mindanao.

The power situation in Mindanao has become worst as the election day nears. In many areas and cities, the 3-hour rotating brownouts are still in effect with no solution being applied by the government energy agency. Even the former President and the Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) Presidential standard bearer had said that regular rotating brownout is a some kind of conditioning the minds of the voters that this can happen in election day. He was campaigning in parts of Northern Mindanao when a brownout took place.

The Maguindanao politics which has become more complex as the election day is nearing. There are these candidates for governors, one is Toto Mangudadatu – the husband of a murdered wife and relatives in the Maguindanao massacre. He is running under the banner of the ruling Party – LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD, the party he used to share with the Ampatuans, who are the prime suspects of the massacre. The other governatiorial candidates is Ombra Sinsuat, who is running for Nationalist Party but everybody knows that he is a willing dummy of his Vice-Governatorial condidate Datu Andal Ampatuan, Sr, who is bankrolling their campaigns. And the third candidate is Mayor Midtimbang closely identified with the MILF or families/clans which belong to the Front.

People cannot understand why Toto Mangudadatu opted to remain with the unpopular ruling Party but many more cannot understand why he is not pursuing very eagerly about the multi-murder case of the Ampatuan. It would be more popular for him to intensify his campaign for the abolition of

warlords in Maguindanao, where in many parts, the armed followers of the Ampatuans still has the control. Many of the mayors of the municipalities of the Province of Maguindanao have gone to the Ampatuans to get his financial support and even Toto Mangudadatu has admitted that theAMpatuans have sent a message that they are willing to pay the lives of the wife and relatives of Mangudadatu as well as the families of the other victims (including the media) of the Maguindanao massacre.

If the Mangudadatu are relaying on the sympathy of the voters because his wife and relatives were murdered by the Ampatuan, then, he would surely not win as governor. But if by strokes of luck, he will win as governor, one can hardly conceive a situation where Toto Mangudadatu is the Governor and his Vice-Governor is Andal Ampatuan, Sr.

The not so active campaign of Toto Mangudadatu for speedy trial and getting justice for his family and the families of other victims has generated puzzlement to many. There are many witnesses to the brutal massacre last November 23, 2009 and are willing to testify which can build a strong case for Mangudadatu in order to neutralize if not politically eliminate the Ampatuans during this May 10, 2010 elections but are not done. One cannot help but to think that the Arroyo camp has something to do with the Mangudadatu moves. Is this part of the deal between the Arroyo camp, the Ampatuan and the Mangudadatu so that whatever happens after the May 10, 2010 elections, power and wealth sharing can be given proportionately among the three? Meanwhile the witnesses against the Ampatuans are murdered and harassed regularly without the military or authority intervening to arrest the situation.

An Interim Agreement can also mean Transition Government

The Joint Statement signed last April 21, 2010 by both panels of the GRP and the MILF regarding the following; the return of the IDPs, terms of reference for the Civilian Protection Component, Implementing Gudelines on the clearance of landmines and unexploded ordinance, support for Bangsamoro Leadership and Management Institute and the Administration Support for the Coordinating Committees of the Cessation of Hostilities. These aspects are all part of an arrangements for transitioning towards a Comprehensive Compact. It is strongly believe by many that on May 4 or 5, an interim agreement will be signed by the two respective panels.

Within such framework, one has to wonder if this is a part of the implementation of the Arroyo’s Demobilization, Disarmament and Reintegration policy of not so long ago.

On the other hand, if the said interim agreement will be a transition for the new government which will be for the newly elected President to use as guideline to pursue a coherent peace process and agreements with the MILF, then it is foul for both the panels not to factor in the stresses of the new government peace agenda.

Many of the Mindanaoans have suspected that this interim agreement which will be signed by the GRP and MILF panels would include a substate framework which will be bestowed by the GRP on the MILF with ARMM and the surrounding provinces and municipalities as the initial coverage of the agreement.



Surely such hasty moves by both groups will invite a negative or even antagonistic reactions from the different groups of Mindanao especially the Indigenous peoples and the Majority Christians. Without the fulfillment of thorough consultations and discussions with the broadest possible sections of peoples in and outside of Mindanao and in and outside of the ARMM such signing will be creating unfavorable atmosphere for the peacebuilding efforts in Mindanao. And it is in that spirit that one of the Bishops in Mindanao has called both panels to have an agreement signed later or after the elections.

Such apprehensions are not without bases because while almost everybody knows the expected date of the signing of the interim agreement between the GRP and the MILF nobody has seen or knows the content of the document especially those who will be affected by the agreement. The experience of 2008 on the aborted MOA-AD which resulted to a bloody reactions and counter-reactions of the MILF and the concerned Mindanaoans are still fresh. Now, as if the data of more than 500 lives and more than 500,000 Internally Displaced persons do not matter. Unless they are really meant to create similar situation wherein the government forces will be “forced” to do the intervention because MILF renegads like Obra Katu and Commander Bravo would do the same act. And the Timing of one week before the election signing? Does the MILF leadership know of such trap?

Meanwhile, the same traditional politicans have made an appeal the GRP and the Philippine Courts that the agreement be set aside and let all the stakeholders participate in the discusiions and deliberations.

It is only in the abovementioned situation, one can undrestand the context why GMA and her Executive Secretary told the new US Ambassador to the Philippines Harry Thomas, that the government is doing everything to have a successful elections and have a democratic turn-over to the new administrtion. It is because if the MILF and the Mindanaoans will react to the signing of the interim agreement as what has been created by its (GMA’s government) own doing then the government moves to protect and preserve democracy and democratic institutions are but the natural work of the government. Meanwhile, the election and its results will be affected and interim agreement – as a transition step of GMA’s camp – perfectly fits into the picture.

And it also perfectly fits with the scenario that a desperate “Opposition” will rather like to happen. And then the puzzlement of Villaroyo will be perfectly manifested and understood by everyone.