"The Ampatuans have been known to be Arroyo’s warlords and therefore could not be genuinely identified as rebels otherwise this move will again end up on Arroyo’s doorsteps."

The Quid Pro Quo

The private army and the enormous wealth of the Ampatuans have been arrogantly displayed for the entire world to see since they have had a quid pro quo relationship with the Arroyo regime. That is the Ampatuans can have the sky as the limit for their wealth and power as long as they can help the Arroyo to stay in power.

The brigade size Civilian Armed Forces Geographical Unit (CAFGU), the more than battalion size Special Civilian Auxiliary Army (SCAA) and Civilian Volunteers Organization (CVO), were all trained by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP) respectively. They are armed with weapons far sophisticated and high powered than AFP and PNP combined armaments but everybody knows even the higher ups of the trainors that these units have been treated by the Ampatuans as their private armies and personal security units whose main tasks were not only to protect the whole clan but also to secure and guard the twenty eight (28) mansions with built-in money vaults in them. These scandalously big and very expensive mansions worth billions of pesos are located throughout the country. In some of these places, they are built in the midst of peoples’ shanties as if wanting to present a contrast of heaven and earth or hell depending on one’s perspective.

One month ago, such situation seemed untouchable and nobody dared to even try to rock such arrangement. Everybody has known that there is a direct connection of the Ampatuans and Malacañang. The miraculous victory of Mrs Arroyo over the Muslims’ idol Fernando Poe Jr in 2004 Presidential Elections providing Commission on Election Commissioner Garcilliano a secured hiding place during the Hello Garci Scandal and the mysterious 12-0 victory of Mrs Arroyo senatorial slate in the province in 2007 elections have been, too glaring to ignore such symbiotic relationship.

The November 23: Quo Vadis?

After the November 23, 2009 infamous Maguindanao Massacre where fifty seven (57) people majority of whom are journalists and lawyers and supporters of a rival clan were brutally murdered and mutilated, the picture which was painted above seemed to turn upside down.

The whole nation and the world have reacted to the gruesome and very inhuman acts of killing the 57 people on the road to file and witness a democratic exercise thru filing of Candidacy to the provincial Commission on Election (COMELEC) office. Everybody believes that act could only be done by monsters and all signs and footprints have sharply pointed to the Ampatuans.

Mrs. Arroyo and Malacañang were put on the spot. They know that they have created these monsters and their inaction (as in the past creating an atmosphere of impunity) would surely point back to their direction and the world especially the country could not forgiven them. Damage control measures like expulsion of the clan from the Ruling Party and arresting or “inviting” one of the monsters would perhaps reassures and lessens the anger of the people. Aside from reassuring the people, Malacañang would want to show that it does not tolerate such act. The main reason for the damage control measure is to buy time and lay down the foundation of creating an impression of the distancing Mrs. Arroyo from the Ampatuans at the same time thinking of ways to save the Ampatuans and hence saving Mrs Arroyo from possible revelation of the Ampatuans’ aces against her.

Martial Law a Solution to Maguindanao Massacre or an Exit Plan?

The declaration of Martial Law in Maguindanao is the best option because it will have reason to arrest and isolate the Ampatuans and to make sure that they can not speak against Arroyo. The Arroyo regime can launch search and seizure activities against the Ampatuan in the guise of looking for guns and military hardware it had provided or sold in the past but actually it is looking and securing the 2004 and 2007 electoral evidences against Arroyo and the Ruling Party.

The problem is: the constitutional justifications of Martial Law, which are invasion and rebellion, are not present in Maguindanao. Ampatuan Jr. had tried to implicate the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and nobody believed him. The Ampatuans have been known to be Arroyo’s warlords and therefore could not be genuinely identified as rebels otherwise this move will again end up on Arroyo’s doorsteps.

The constitution says the President has to report to a joint session of Congress 48 hours after the declaration of Martial Law. The Congress with a simple majority vote can revoke the declaration of Martial Law. Again this gives Mrs. Arroyo a breathing space – the Congress especially its lower house will unashamedly give Mrs. Arroyo their approval for Maguindanao Martial Law and then they can have their pork barrels which have been withheld up to the present.

The problem of the Arroyos’ allies in the lower house is that they have to make the decision to support her which means making the unpopular position not good with the elections of 2010 coming.

Furthermore Maguindanao is a known stronghold of the MILF and they have been waging rebellion for decades and peace talks have just restarted. This explains the words “except for some places in Maguindanao” Martial Law is effected.

And to put more salt to the wounds of the Ampatuans, the Commission on Audit (COA) has finally seen that the wealth, money in vaults, fleet of luxurious cars and more than two dozens mansions do not correspond to the income of the clan most of whom are politicians. But actually the findings will be used later against the clan if they insist on divulging what they know about Mrs. Arroyo and the Ruling Party in 2004 and 2007 elections respectively.

The November 23 and May 2010 and Beyond

Have all the above mentioned points led to the declaration of Martial Law in Maguindanao? Not so. The gruesome November 23 Massacre was a disaster waiting to happen. Mrs. Arroyo has created the monsters and the monsters have known no limit to crimes they can commit. They have been doing this kind of crime in the past and the only difference was that they were done to smaller number of people and less known entities. The disaster might be for us and maybe for the monsters but as the trend now says it can be another opportunity to answer another question for Mrs. Arroyo – her exit plan.

With Congress secured in her pockets and the Departments of Justice, National Defense and Interior and Local government they can create situation similar to November 23 event in other parts of the country. And the Arroyo regime can depend on people like Teddy Locsin the divided CBCP/Church and Bankers to justify its Martial Law as the last resort or whatever. And at the end of the day, many of us have been made to believe that she is running for Congress in the Second District of Pampanga. And looking into the eyes of Secretaries Puno, Gonzales and Devenadera one can say that Mrs. Arroyo and themselves have more years to stay put in their respective positions. Only that they are more powerful than before.

Martial Law in Maguindanao is indeed an answer to another question. And by the time many of us will know the answer, Mrs. Arroyo changes the question. Or lift up the Martial Law in Maguindanao only to declare it again in other vote-rich province in the country. What matters most is that it has set the historical precedence.

Photo: Members of the Young Advocates for Peace and Solidarity (YAPS) in Cotabato City joined in a vigil protest to call for Justice to the victims of the November 23 massacre and against the Martial Law in Maguindanao.